QCP: 비트코인(BTC)은 거래량이 적은 연휴 기간 동안 약 2.6% 상승했는데 이는 매도보다는 현물 및 무기한 주문 매수세에 힘입은 결과입니다. 만기 후 포지션을 보면 무기한 주문 펀딩이 증가한 것으로 나타나 BTC가 약 94,000달러 이상을 유지할 경우 상승 감마 리스크가 발생할 가능성이 있습니다. 하락 헤지 전략은 다소 완화되었지만 미결제 약정이 급격히 감소하면서 확신은 여전히 약하며, 향후 방향은 유동성 회복을 기다려야 할 것으로 보입니다.
https://t.me/QCPbroadcast/1530
QCP Asia Colour, 29 December 2025
New Year, Old Range
BTC rose around 2.6% in early Asia, but holiday-thin liquidity continues to distort price action. With less than $40m in long liquidations, the move appears driven by spot and perpetual buying rather than forced covering, potentially supported by renewed corporate demand.
Post-expiry positioning has shifted. BTC perpetual funding on Deribit has jumped above 30%, signalling dealers are now short gamma to the upside. This dynamic was evident as spot pushed through 90k, triggering hedging flows into perpetuals and near-dated calls. A sustained move above 94k could amplify this effect.
Downside hedging has eased after the December 85k Put was not rolled, but with open interest down roughly 50% post-expiry, conviction remains limited. Capital is sidelined, and direction likely waits for liquidity to return.
Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/asia-colour-182/
3598