QCP Asia Colour, 21 January 2026 From Tokyo to Tariffs: Risk-Off Returns, Bitcoin Blinks Within the span of a week, risk has slipped back off the table. A shock from Japan and renewed geopolitical tensions have pushed markets into defensive mode, with equities wobbling and global rates back in focus. Japan sits at the center of this unease. The repricing in JGB yields is doing more than lifting domestic borrowing costs. It is forcing global investors to revisit a familiar transmission channel: when Japan’s rates move, cross-border duration positioning, funding assumptions, and risk premia tend to move with it. In a market already sensitive to policy error, Japan is back on the list of credible volatility catalysts. Across the Atlantic, US–Europe tensions are escalating again. Tariff headlines and retaliation risk are returning to the foreground, raising the odds of a more confrontational trade backdrop. For markets, the question is not whether the rhetoric flares, but whether it hardens into policy that dents…