QCP: 연준의 관심이 경기 침체 위험으로 쏠리고 있습니다. 금과 달리 비트코인은 안전 자산으로 주목받지 못하고 있습니다. "대체 가치 저장 수단"이라는 주장은 현 거시경제 체제에서 힘을 얻지 못하고 있습니다. 포지션은 여전히 방어적입니다. 투자자들은 경기 침체 위험이 명확해질 때까지 하락 헤지 전략에 집중하고 있습니다.
https://t.me/QCPbroadcast/1439
QCP Asia Colour - 16 April 25
The Art of the Deal
The real negotiations begin now. The U.S. has showcased its might and strategic brinkmanship, deploying shock-and-awe tactics through hyperbolic tariff figures. Yet just as markets braced for impact, the U.S. administration offered tariff exemptions and extended an olive branch to Beijing, "inviting" China back to the negotiating table.
Why the sudden pivot?
Bond markets began flashing warning signals. The 10Y UST yield surged to 4.6%, while the 30Y UST pierced 5%, unsettling risk sentiment. If Trump intends to engineer a stock market rebound during his term, long-term yields have to go down, not up.
The bond market selloff has ratcheted up pressure on the Fed to intervene. And it seems we're approaching the inflection point. Last week, the Fed signalled readiness to act in order to stabilise financial conditions. Governor Waller added weight to that shift, indicating that the Fed's attention is turning toward recession risk, implicitly downplaying persistent…
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