QCP: 파월 의장은 올해 인하 가능성에 대한 어떠한 약속도 회피하고, 대신 6월 FOMC 회의로 그 지침을 연기했습니다. 현재 가격은 7월, 9월, 12월에 세 차례에 걸쳐 25bp 인하할 것이라는 예상을 반영하고 있습니다. 옵션 시장에서는 특히 5월과 6월에 만기가 도래하는 고점형 콜 옵션에 대한 수요가 크게 증가했습니다.
https://t.me/QCPbroadcast/1448
QCP Asia Colour – 8 May 2025
No News is Good News
As expected, last night’s FOMC meeting offered little in the way of surprises. The Fed left the Fed Funds Rate unchanged and reiterated its well-worn narrative: a resilient US economy, a tight labour market, and inflation still hovering just above the 2% target.
While the resurfacing of trade tensions via President Trump’s proposed tariffs injects fresh uncertainty into the US economic outlook, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remained cautious but composed. He reiterated that the costs of patience are “fairly low,” signalling no urgency to cut rates. Importantly, Powell sidestepped any commitment on the number of potential cuts this year, choosing instead to defer that guidance to the June FOMC meeting.
Markets, however, are not waiting. Current pricing reflects expectations for three 25bps cuts in July, September, and December.
Major Trade Deal Teased – Risk-On Returns
President Trump sparked a wave of risk-on sentiment early this morning by teasing a major trade…
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