QCP: 30년 만기 일본 국채(JGB) 수익률이 3%를 돌파하며 사상 최고치를 경신하고 글로벌 투자자들을 불안하게 만들면서 일본 채권 시장에 새로운 변동성이 불어닥치고 있습니다. 한편 비트코인은 오늘 10만 8천 달러 돌파를 시도했지만, 상승세를 이어갈 모멘텀이 부족했습니다. 가격 움직임은 스트래티지와 메타플내닛의 국채 매입과 밀접한 관련이 있는 것으로 보이며, 이들은 현재 가격에서 여전히 주요 매수자로 남아 있습니다. 이러한 기관들이 마지막 미미한 매수세가 될 수 있다는 우려가 커지고 있습니다.
https://t.me/QCPbroadcast/1452
QCP Asia Colour – 21 May 2025
A fresh wave of volatility is gripping Japanese fixed income markets as 30-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields surge past 3%, breaching historic levels and unsettling global investors.
Japan’s ballooning debt situation has long been a simmering concern, but it is now reaching a boiling point. With a debt-to-GDP ratio of 234%, the highest among developed economies, the fiscal strain is drawing renewed scrutiny. Comments from Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba have catalyzed global focus, even as Japan’s debt metrics have quietly deteriorated over the past decade. Weak demand for long-dated JGBs, combined with structural concerns, has sent long-end yields sharply higher.
Traditionally, USDJPY has been more sensitive to short-term rate differentials than long-end yield dynamics. However, if this bond selloff persists and fiscal concerns deepen, we could see short-term appreciation in the yen as capital reconsiders Japan risk.
The tremors in JGBs are spilling over into global markets.…