QCP Asia Colour – 9 June 2025 Implied vols continue to come under pressure, with BTC stuck in a tight range as summer approaches. While implied vols at 1-year lows appear optically cheap, realised volatility is even lower. Historical data over the past two years suggest that frontend vols tend to drift further into July. We saw this pattern play out around the same time last year, when 1-month ATM vols collapsed from 80v in March to 40v by July, coinciding with BTC’s repeated failures to decisively breach the $70k level. A clean break below $100k or above $110k would likely reawaken broader market interest, but we currently see no obvious near-term catalyst to drive such a move. Recent macro headlines have produced knee-jerk reactions, but these have largely been dismissed as noise and quickly faded, which has been insufficient to trigger a directional breakout. Even as US equities rallied and gold sold off in the wake of Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report, BTC remained conspicuously unmoved, caught…