QCP: 낮은 실현 변동성과 명확한 촉매제 부재로 인해 비트코인의 내재 변동성은 여전히 압박을 받고 있습니다. 시장 참가자들은 강세 베팅을 미루고 있으며, 7월 옵션을 9월로 롤오버하고 있습니다. 11만 달러 상방 또는 10만 달러 하방 돌파 없이는 비트코인은 박스권에 머물 것으로 예상됩니다. 거시경제적 변동 가능성은 이번 주 미국 소비자물가지수(CPI)와 생산자물가지수(PPI)에 주목해야 합니다.
https://t.me/QCPbroadcast/1460
QCP Asia Colour – 9 June 2025
Implied vols continue to come under pressure, with BTC stuck in a tight range as summer approaches. While implied vols at 1-year lows appear optically cheap, realised volatility is even lower. Historical data over the past two years suggest that frontend vols tend to drift further into July. We saw this pattern play out around the same time last year, when 1-month ATM vols collapsed from 80v in March to 40v by July, coinciding with BTC’s repeated failures to decisively breach the $70k level.
A clean break below $100k or above $110k would likely reawaken broader market interest, but we currently see no obvious near-term catalyst to drive such a move. Recent macro headlines have produced knee-jerk reactions, but these have largely been dismissed as noise and quickly faded, which has been insufficient to trigger a directional breakout.
Even as US equities rallied and gold sold off in the wake of Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report, BTC remained conspicuously unmoved, caught…
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