QCP: 이란의 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄 위협으로 BTC가 10만 달러 아래로 잠시 하락하여 9만 8,200달러까지 하락했습니다. 이로 인해 10억 달러 이상의 매도 물량이 발생했습니다. 빠른 반등은 유동성 부족 속에서 거시경제적 요인에 의한 매도세가 발생했음을 시사합니다. 지정학적 우려가 완화되면서 시장은 안정세를 보이고 있지만 비트코인은 이번 주 미국 주요 경제 지표 발표를 앞두고 10만 달러 부근의 중요한 변곡점에 머물러 있습니다.
https://t.co/qgrzk2e8lu
QCP Asia Colour – 23 June 2025
Make Volatility Great Again?
BTC briefly dipped below $100k on Sunday, falling 6% to a low of $98.2k. This marked its lowest print since breaching the $100k psychological level on 8 May. The selloff extended across major altcoins, catalyzed by Iran’s threat to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would severely disrupt global oil flows.
BTC’s reclaim of $100k this morning suggests that the weekend drawdown was macro-driven, with investors turning to crypto as a hedge while awaiting equity futures to open. The move was amplified by thin liquidity conditions, triggering over $1 billion in liquidations across the market.
While Iran has vowed retaliation, markets appear to be discounting the likelihood of a major escalation. The US is pressuring China diplomatically to rein in Tehran, and that geopolitical backchanneling seems to be having a calming effect. Put skew remains elevated through September, but the strong spot bounce and compression in frontend vols signal that investors…