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๐Ÿ“•์ทจ๋ฏธ์ƒํ™œ๋ฐฉ ๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ Written by "SB" ๐Ÿ“Œ10์›” 22์ผ ์ฃผ์š”๊ฒฝ์ œ์ด์Šˆ 1. ์—ฐ์ค€. ์˜ฌํ•ด ๋‘์ฐจ๋ก€ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธํ•˜ ์ „๋ง. - ์—ฐ์ค€์€ ์˜ฌํ•ด ๋‚จ์€ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์— ๋‘ ์ฐจ๋ก€(10์›”๊ณผ 12์›”) ๊ธฐ์ค€๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ๊ฐ 25bp ์ธํ•˜ํ•  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ๋†’๋‹ค๋Š” ์กฐ์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. - ๋‹ค๋งŒ 2026๋…„ ์ดํ›„ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ๊ฒฝ๋กœ๋Š” ๋งค์šฐ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹คํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ์ด ๊ฐ•์กฐ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. - 10์›” 24์ผ์— ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋  CPI๊ฐ€ 10์›” ๊ธฐ์ค€๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธํ•˜์˜ ํž˜์„ ๋”์šฑ ์‹ค์–ด์ฃผ๊ฒŒ ๋  ์ „๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.(์ง€์—ฐ ๋ฐœํ‘œ) 2. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์—ฐ๋ฐฉ์ •๋ถ€ ์…ง๋‹ค์šด ์žฅ๊ธฐํ™” - ์—ฐ๋ฐฉ์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ 10์›” 1์ผ๋ถ€๋กœ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ ๋ฒ•์•ˆ ํ•ฉ์˜ ์ง€์—ฐ์œผ๋กœ ์…ง๋‹ค์šด ๋œ ์ดํ›„๋กœ, ์…ง๋‹ค์šด์ด ์žฅ๊ธฐํ™” ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. - ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์…ง๋‹ค์šด์ด ์žฅ๊ธฐํ™” ๋˜๋ฉด ์—ฐ๋ฐฉ์ •๋ถ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์ง‘ํ–‰์ด ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„๋Š” ๊ตฐ์ธ๋“ค ๊ธ‰์—ฌ๋ฅผ ์šฐ์„ ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ง€๊ธ‰ํ•˜๊ฒ ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•œ ๋ฐ”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. - ์…ง๋‹ค์šด์œผ๋กœ ๋งค์ฃผ ์ตœ๋Œ€ 150์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์  ์†์‹ค์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฒ ์„ผํŠธ ์žฌ๋ฌด ์žฅ๊ด€์ด ์–ธ๊ธ‰ํ–ˆ์œผ๋‚˜, ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ๋‚ด์— ํ•ด์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐฑ์•…๊ด€์€ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•ด์„œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์— ๋งค์šฐ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ํ•œ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 3. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ธฐ์—… ์‹ค์  ํ˜ธ์กฐ & ์†Œ๋น„์ž ์ง€์ถœ ์–‘๊ทนํ™” ๋šœ๋ ท - S&P๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ 500๊ธฐ์—… ์ค‘ ์•ฝ 87%๊ฐ€ ์˜ˆ์ƒ์น˜๋ฅผ ์›ƒ๋„๋Š” ์‹ค์ ์„ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ทธ ์ค‘ ๋Œ€ํ˜• ์†Œ๋น„์žฌ์™€ ์ž๋™์ฐจ ๊ธฐ์—… ๋“ฑ์ด ๊ฐ•์„ธ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. - ๋‹ค๋งŒ ์†Œ๋น„ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์ด ๊ณ ์†Œ๋“์ธต ์œ„์ฃผ๋ผ๋Š” ์ง€์ ์ด ๋‚˜์˜ค๋ฉฐ, K ์žํ˜• ํšŒ๋ณต ์šฐ๋ ค๊ฐ€ ์ œ๊ธฐ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. - ์ด์™€ ๋™์‹œ์— ์ž๋™์ฐจ ๋ชจ๊ธฐ์ง€์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ์œ„ํ—˜์ด ๋„๋“œ๋ผ์ง€๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ํˆฌ์ž์ž๋“ค์„ ๊ธด์žฅ์‹œํ‚ค๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 4. ์ฃผํƒ์‹œ์žฅ ์ง€ํ‘œ - NAHB์˜ ์ฃผํƒ์ž์žฌ์—…์ฒด, ๊ฑด์„ค์ง€ํ‘œ๊ฐ€ 6๊ฐœ์›” ๋งŒ์— ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜๋กœ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. - ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ง€ํ‘œ๊ฐ’์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ 50 ์•„๋ž˜์„ ์„ ๋ฐ‘๋Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 5. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ฃผ์‹ ์‹œ์žฅ(์ƒ์Šน ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€ ๋‘”ํ™” + ๊ธˆ๊ฐ’ ๊ธ‰๋ฝ) ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ฆ์‹œ๋Š” ๊ธฐ์—…์‹ค์  ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ์Šนํ–ˆ์œผ๋‚˜, ์–ด์ œ ๊ธˆ์ด ๊ธ‰๋ฝํ•˜์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์…ง๋‹ค์šด ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ ํ•ด์ œ๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ํ•˜๋ฝ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜, ๊ธˆ์€ 9์›”๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๊ณ„์† ๊ณผ๋งค์ˆ˜ ์ƒํƒœ์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 6. ์˜จ๋ผ์ธ ํ™€๋ฆฌ๋ฐ์ด ํŒ๋งค์„ฑ์žฅ ๋‘”ํ™” ์ „๋ง Adobe Analytics๋Š” 2025๋…„ 11์›” 1์ผ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 12์›” 31์ผ ์˜จ๋ผ์ธ ํŒ๋งค๊ฐ€ 5.3% ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋˜๋ฉฐ, 2024๋…„ 8.7%์— ๋น„ํ•ด ๋‘”ํ™”๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ฐœํ‘œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์†Œ๋น„์ž๋“ค์ด ํ• ์ธ๊ณผ ์ด์ปค๋จธ์Šค ํ™œ์šฉ์„ ๋Š˜๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ฅ ์€ ๋‘”ํ™”๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 7. ์ฃผ์š” ๊ฒฝ์ œ์ง€ํ‘œ ๋ฐœํ‘œ ์ง€์—ฐ - ์ง€๋‚œ์ฃผ์— ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋˜์—ˆ์–ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š” CPI๊ฐ€ ์ด๋ฒˆ์ฃผ์— ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋˜๋Š” ๋“ฑ, ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์ง€ํ‘œ๋“ค์˜ ๋ฐœํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ๋‘”ํ™”๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. - ์ด๋Š” ์—ฐ์ค€์ด ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์„ฑ์„ ์ •ํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ฒฝ์ œ๋ฅผ ํ•ด์„ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ ์–ด๋ ค์›€์„ ๋А๋‚„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์…ง๋‹ค์šด์ด ๊ธธ์–ด์งˆ์ˆ˜๋ก ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์˜ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ์ด ์ปค์งˆ ์ „๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. โœ๏ธ์ •๋ฆฌ ๊ณ„์†๋˜๋Š” ์…ง๋‹ค์šด, ๊ธˆ์œต ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ, ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„์˜ ์˜ค๋ฝ๊ฐ€๋ฝ ๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ฆ์‹œ์˜ ์›€์ง์ž„(๋ณ€๋™์„ฑ)์ด ์ปค์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์ƒํƒœ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธํ•˜ 2ํšŒ๊ฐ€ ํ™•์ •๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋”๋ผ๋„ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ์šฐ๋ ค๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์ค‘๋˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๋ฉด ๋งคํฌ๋กœ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์ด Bad is Good ์—์„œ Bad is Bad๋กœ ๋Œ์•„์„ค ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. #๊ตญ์ œ
US Fed to trim rates twice more this year; 2026 rate path very unclear
The Federal Reserve will lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points next week and again in December, according to a Reuters poll of economists who remain deeply divided on where rates will be by the end of next year.
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์ทจ๋ฏธ์ƒํ™œ๋ฐฉ๐Ÿ“ฎ
๋น„ํŠธ์ฝ”์ธ & ๊ฒฝ์ œ & ์žฌํ…Œํฌ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ๊ณต์œ ๋“œ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ธ€์€ ํˆฌ์ž์˜ ์ฐธ๊ณ  ์ž๋ฃŒ์ผ ๋ฟ์ด๋ฉฐ, ํˆฌ์ž ํŒ๋‹จ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ฑ…์ž„์„ ์ง€์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. https://x.com/CryptoMyhobby * ํ™๋ณด, ํ›„์›, ๊ด‘๊ณ  : @KimYoungTaek ๋ฌธ์˜